OECD FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation Development (OECD) and the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations published its OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 providing a consensus assessment of the ten-year prospects for agricultural commodity, fish and biofuel markets at national, regional and global levels. The report highlights the EU drive to lower protein meal consumption in feed.

The report, prepared with input from Member governments and international commodity organisations, presents the trends driving food and agricultural markets over the coming decade. With less than 10 years until the 2030 deadline for achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), governments need to step up their efforts to meet global food security and environmental targets. Productivity improvements will be key to feeding a growing global population – projected to reach 8.5 billion by 2030 – sustainably. Of the increases in global crop production expected in 2030, 87% are projected to come from yield growth, while 6% to come from expanded land use and 7% from increases in cropping intensity. Similarly, a large share of the projected expansion in livestock and fish production is expected to result from productivity gains. However, herd enlargement is also expected to significantly contribute to livestock production growth in emerging economies and low-income countries. Trade will continue to be critical for global food security, nutrition, farm incomes and tackling rural poverty. On average across the world, around 20% of what is consumed domestically is imported. Looking ahead to 2030, imports are projected to account for 64% of total domestic consumption in the Near East and North Africa region, while Latin America and the Caribbean region is expected to export more than a third of its total agricultural production. Global greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture are projected to increase by 4% over the next ten years, mostly due to expanding livestock production. This is despite the fact that emissions per unit of output – carbon intensity of production – are expected to decrease significantly over the period.

The ongoing evolution of global consumption patterns towards higher shares of animal products in diets have resulted in growing quantities of crops and other agricultural products being used as feed. Maize and protein meal will remain the most important commodities used as feed, accounting for over 60% of total feed used by 2030. Demand growth for protein meal is projected to slow down substantially compared to the last decade, mainly reflecting efforts by large users (e.g. China, and the European Union) to lower the protein meal share in feed rations. Slow growth in feed demand is projected in the United States due to feed efficiency gains in the beef and pigmeat sectors, while in the European Union, feed demand is projected to slightly decline over the coming decade, mainly due to a drop in demand for protein meals. For the European Union, this rate reflects declining pig and other livestock herds, together with gains in feeding efficiency. However, the expansion of the poultry sector will sustain feed demand in the European Union up to 2030. The extensification and diversification of livestock production systems in some countries in the European Union (e.g. organic, pasture-based, GM-free), however, could further reduce demand for protein meals in the future and stimulate demand for locally produced and/or non-GM feed, including pulses and other legumes. Read more on feed chapter 1.3.6 Feed use: Between efficiency gains and intensification (page 40 – 41).

More information on the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook is available here, press release.