EU Compound Feed Production Forecast 2022
Compound feed demand is about to decrease by 5 Mio tons in 2022. The spread of animal diseases and the economic impact of the war in Ukraine are the main factors reducing demand.
EU compound feed production (EU27) for farmed animals[1] in 2022 is estimated to decrease by 5 Mio tonnes to a level of 145 Mio t. compare to the 2021 level of 150mio t. (decrease of 3.5% y/y). Large producer countries are forecasting a production decrease ranging between -8.8 to -1.5 % y/y reflecting supply chain disruptions and the spread of animal diseases in 2022.
Only feed manufacturers in the Baltics, Ireland, Poland, Bulgaria and Slovenia are expected to keep feed production at a similar level to the last year. At the EU level, all of the major feed sectors will face a reduction.
The pig feed sector is likely to be the most affected. The production is estimated to decrease by – 5,6% compared to 2021 following the reductions in herd size / the number of sows or farmers leaving the business in some MS. This is mainly due to increased production costs and animal health issues such as African swine fever (ASF). The situation is especially critical in Belgium (-11%), Denmark (-9%), Portugal (-8.4%), Germany (-8%), & Czech republic
(-7,4%). The Netherlands and Belgium continue to depopulate their pig herds to reduce agricultural environmental emissions. Romania & Poland are being very much impacted by ASF.
The EU poultry feed sector will see a fall in production by -3,4% in 2022 compared to the previous year. This is mainly due to avian influenza spreading across the EU where FR, BE, IT & HU are particularly hard hit countries. Farmers, following increased costs of production (feed, energy, packaging) for both eggs and poultry meat, are postponing new production cycles/flock rotations. The EU trade policy offering temporary “zero tariff, zero quota” access for Ukrainian products entering the EU led to significant imports of poultry meat and eggs in July and August. Finally, due to inflation pressures on disposable incomes, farmers have difficulties selling high-value products like organic and free-range.
The cattle feed production is projected to decrease by – 1.3% compared to the previous year despite increased sales of compound feed over the summer months when grass yield has been negatively impacted in the EU (especially FR, DE, Benelux and Southern Europe). Farmers have reduced their herds / shortened lactation cycles both to respond to green policies / and to reduce feed usage.
The disappointing maize harvest in the EU (-19%). may lead to a switch in the feed ratio in favour of feed wheat, displacing maize.
The increasing utility costs, economic uncertainty, increasing costs linked to environmental and animal welfare policy measures & expected persistence of animal diseases are being identified by FEFAC experts as the main market drivers for ICFP 2023. A key challenge for the grain and oilseeds market remains the uncertainty over the continuation of the Black sea grain corridor initiative (UN JCC agreement) and the pace of expansion of EU solidarity lanes to keep Ukrainian grain exports operational, during the new Marketing Year.
[1] From 2016 on, FEFAC no longer includes dry petfood production in its statistics, considering that a large part of the production was missing in national statistics.